Economic Update

Published 02 Apr 2018

Along with a recent uptick in foreign arrivals, Egypt’s tourism industry should receive a boost from the resumption of direct flights to and from Russia, one of the country’s largest sources of international visitors.

In mid-March national airline Egypt Air and its Russian counterpart Aeroflot announced that flights between Moscow and Cairo would recommence on April 12 and 11, respectively.

Egypt Air will run its service three times per week between Cairo International Airport (CAI) and Moscow Domodedovo Airport, while the Russian flag carrier will run the same number of weekly flights between CAI and Sheremetyevo International Airport.

These moves effectively end a 2.5-year suspension of flights between the countries following the downing of a Russian charter plane over the Sinai Peninsula in October 2015.

The incident, along with the 2011 revolution, led to a significant drop in tourist arrivals; in 2010, 14.7m people visited the country, but by 2016 the number had eased to 5.4m, with annual revenue falling from $12.5bn to $3.8bn. A drop in Russian tourists – whose share of foreign arrivals fell from 68% in 2015 to 13% by mid-2016 – was a major contributing factor to the decline.

Outlook positive as visitor numbers improve

Despite challenges, the tourism sector is experiencing something of a rebound, leading to a more positive outlook for the near to medium term.

Visitor numbers increased by 54% last year to 8.3m, while tourism receipts more than doubled to $7.6bn. Group travel jumped 66.5%, indicating resurgent interest from package tour operators, and the January-February period saw a 39% year-on-year increase in the number of tourists from the UK – another traditional source of arrivals.

On top of efforts to improve the domestic security situation, another factor thought to be behind the stronger arrival numbers is the value of the Egyptian pound, which has halved since the government’s decision to float the currency in November 2016, making Egypt a more affordable travel destination.  

The positive trend is expected to continue into 2018, according to Hamed El Chiaty, the chairman of local travel company Travco, who forecasts 2018 arrivals will increase by a further 40-50% to reach roughly 12m.

El Chiaty told local media the increase was likely to come from a rise in visitors from traditional partners such as the UK and Ukraine, along with the development of new markets in Eastern Europe, including Hungary, Latvia and Lithuania.

Promotional efforts tap new markets

The diversification of Egypt’s sources markets is being bolstered by an international marketing strategy that aims to re-establish the sector as one of the main drivers of the economy, while also preventing it from being overly reliant on visitors from any one nation.

“While Arab, German and Ukrainian source markets have proved resilient over the years, British and Russian arrivals remain below historic levels,” Ahmed Aly, CEO of Nile Air, told OBG. “With Egypt’s wide appeal and recent resurgence in tourism, it is crucial for Egypt to continue to diversify its source markets to include new & emerging markets, such Asia, and not remain reliant on any one source market.”

To this end, a three-month tourism promotional strategy has been prepared to air on the National Geographic channel in April. The campaign will focus on the UK, Germany, Poland, the Czech Republic, Belgium and countries throughout the Middle East, and will consist of videos featuring information about Egypt’s tourism industry and holiday attractions.

Ongoing diversification efforts have also seen the Tourism Development Authority (TDA) undertake a campaign, running from February to April, to promote the country in the Spanish market. The TDA has met with travel agents from Spain to present the latest developments in tourist facilities and infrastructure, and promote specific visitor sites, with the authority to coordinate the hosting of Christian pilgrims with the Egyptian Orthodox Church.  

The government is also set to issue a tender for the management of tourism promotion in August, when its existing contract with US-based consultancy JWT expiries. The new contract will be altered to reflect developments in the global tourism market and Egypt’s overall economic strategy, according to Rania Al Mashat, the minister of tourism.