Economic Update

Published 31 May 2019

After passenger numbers dropped off sharply in the opening months of the year, Indonesia’s government has moved to rein in rising air travel costs by lowering ticket prices and increasing local production of jet fuel.

On May 13 the government announced it would enforce a 12-16% reduction in fares for all airline carriers, in response to public complaints about the rising cost of air travel. The cuts came into force on May 19.

Domestic fares rose sharply over the past year, from an average of $70 in the first quarter of 2018 to $96 by the end of March 2019, an increase of 42%.

This was driven by higher jet fuel costs and further accentuated by the fall in the rupiah, which dipped 6.98% against the US dollar in 2018, adding to the cost of imported hydrocarbons products.

A continued retreat of the currency, which touched Rp14,500:$1 in late May, will further add to import costs.

The government ruling to lower the price ceiling came ahead of the Eid Al Fitr Muslim holiday in early June, one of the busiest times for carriers.

See also: The Report – Indonesia 2019

Passenger numbers, fuel consumption fall

There was an 18% year-on-year decline in the number of domestic passengers carried in the first quarter of 2019, according to a report by Statistics Indonesia (BPS), from 22.2m to 18.2m seats.

Market leader Garuda posted a 15.2% drop in seat sales, from 11.8m to 10m, according to a report issued by the company in April.

Aside from rising ticket prices, some of this decline could be linked to the slowing of the national economy.

The Indonesian economy expanded at a slower rate than expected in the first quarter, due primarily to a fall in exports and investment growth. While it posted growth of 5.07%, this was below the 5.2% targeted by the central bank, Bank Indonesia.

Weaker travel numbers have also impacted fuel demand.

Jet fuel consumption decreased from 15.5m litres per day in 2018 to 13.5m  in the first four months of this year, according to data released by national oil company Pertamina. This saw Pertamina’s jet fuel inventory rise from 30 days of reserves in 2018 to 42 days.

Amid higher global oil prices and a weaker rupiah, Indonesia spent Rp12trn ($850.9m) on jet fuel imports last year. This constituted a 4.3% increase on 2017 despite lower volumes – 1.22m tonnes compared to 1.54m tonnes in 2017.

In response, the government announced Indonesia would stop importing some processed oil products as of June.

“Starting next month, we will not import oil and gas products, including jet fuel and diesel,” Darmin Nasution, the coordinating minister for economic affairs, told local media. “We want to use our own, produced and processed here. This will help the current account, in addition to encouraging more exports.”

Pertamina issued a statement on April 29 saying it had halted imports of jet fuel in January, due to the fall in air travel frequency. The company also announced it will increase production of jet fuel by upgrading processing capacity at some of its existing refineries.

Liberalising jet fuel distribution

The government has also moved to end Pertamina’s distribution monopoly – a step that may serve to reduce ticket prices. 

At the end of March the government announced it was granting a licence to supply jet fuel to a joint venture between local oil logistics firm AKR Corporindo and UK energy major BP.

Though the licence covers a single distribution point – Morowali Airport in Central Sulawesi – the Ministry of Energy has said further permits will be made available, opening up the segment to greater competition. It has yet to be made clear whether the AKR-BP joint venture plans to import jet fuel or rely on supply from Pertamina.