Vision 2030 was launched by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud in 2016 and represents the most far-reaching and transformative development blueprint in the Kingdom’s history. The framework revolves around three central principles: developing a vibrant society, creating a thriving economy and building an ambitious country. What this means in practice is that the Kingdom has had to transition the economic foundations on which the country’s prosperity relies, moving away from its historical reliance on hydrocarbons and more towards activity in the non-oil sector. Central to this plan is the ramping of privatisation initiatives, giving the Kingdom’s business, entrepreneur and start-up communities the confidence the need to fulfil the ambitious and thriving economy envisioned in the plan.
Making Strides
Diversification efforts have been successful, as reflected in recent figures. The non-oil sector accounted for 45.4% of real GDP in 2016. By the first half of 2025 this had risen to 55.6%. At the same time, the share of non-oil exports as a percentage of non-oil GDP reached 25.7%, up from a 2016 baseline of 18%, and the share of localisation in the oil and gas sector was 65.5% compared to 37%. Meanwhile, as of December 2025, unemployment among Saudis fell from 12.3% in 2016 to 6.8%, 43% of university graduates joined the labour market within six months of graduation compared to a baseline of 13.3% and the percentage of women’s participation in the workforce grew from 22.8% to 35.4%.
According to its annual Vision 2030 progress report in 2024, 85% of the plan’s initiatives were either completed or were on track; 93% of the roadmap’s indicators had either been achieved, exceeded their goals or were close to achieving their interim goals; 674 of the 1502 initiatives were completed since their launch and 257 indicators exceeded their annual targets; and 18 achieved them. As of 2023 life expectancy in the Kingdom stood at 78 years, almost 10 years higher than the global average. Lastly, by the end of 2023, 63.7% of Saudi families owned a housing unit compared to 47% in 2016.
Privatisation Priorities
The private sector’s contribution to GDP, meanwhile, increased from 40% in 2016 to 51% as of October 2025, with a stated target of 65% by 2030. According to the government, private sector investment accounted for around 30% of total yearly investments in the country as of October 2025, equivalent to approximately SR1.3trn ($346.4bn). The Public Investment Fund (PIF), Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, is central to the Kingdom’s privatisation efforts and domestic capital mobilisation. It has also been instrumental in realising the country’s Vision 2030 targets.
The fund’s growth is a key indicator of privatisation momentum: by the end of 2024 the PIF’s total assets under management reached $941.3bn, surpassing its original target of $880bn. In 2025 its 2030 assets under management target was raised to $2.67trn. The PIF is funded by a combination of government debt, government cash transfers and privatisations, including a 16% shareholding of the national oil company, Aramco, following its historic initial public offering in 2019. In 2024 the PIF’s capital deployment and capital investments in priority sectors stood at $56.8bn, while cumulative deployment since 2021 reached $171bn by the end of 2024. Together, this represents a substantial shift in the structure of Saudi Arabia’s economy over the past 10 years, and proof that the political will behind Vision 2030 has been successful in pushing for the necessary legislative and regulatory measures needed to drive change.
Tourism Boom
Tourism has emerged as a central pillar of Vision 2030. The sector was a key driver of Saudi Arabia’s wider economic and social transformation between 2016 and 2025, while also supporting the blueprint’s ambition to foster a more vibrant society. Vision 2030 initially targeted 100m yearly
tourists by 2030 but Saudi Arabia surpassed this target in 2023, reaching the key milestone ahead of schedule. In 2024 the Kingdom recorded 116m visitors, comprising 86.2m domestic trips and 30m inbound tourists. This inbound figure represented a 70% increase from 2016, when inbound visitors totalled 18m. Domestic travellers almost doubled over the same period. Meanwhile, international tourism revenue in 2024 expanded by 148% over 2019 figures, the highest growth rate among the G20 countries.
Prior to the launch of Vision 2030 and the modernisation agenda spearheaded by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, leisure tourism to the Kingdom was limited. Outside of business travel, the vast majority of visitors were religious pilgrims travelling to the holy sites of Makkah and Al Madinah. While religious travel remains a cornerstone of the Kingdom’s tourism strategy, the country is now targeting a wider pool of incoming international visitors. In 2024 Saudi Arabia expanded its e-visa programme to 66 countries, simplifying entry forms for travellers. Developments in the sector are dominated by luxury projects aiming to transform high-end sustainable tourism offerings in the country, particularly along the Red Sea coast.
In efforts to attract more Western visitors, the Kingdom has worked to change its socially conservative image in recent years. The ban on women driving was lifted in 2018, the same year that a decades-long ban on public cinemas was also lifted. In 2019 Saudi-based entertainment company MDLB east launched Soundstorm, an annual music and dance festival in Riyadh in December that attracts over 700,000 visitors each year – more than triple the number of concertgoers who attend Glastonbury Festival in the UK. The Kingdom appeared to further loosen its restrictions on alcohol sales in 2025, when it was reported that two more liquor stores would be opening in the Kingdom, one in Jeddah and one in Dhahran. Like the Riyadh store, sales would be strictly limited to foreign diplomats and premium residency holders like high-earning expatriates and investors.
Meanwhile, the sports and entertainment market has thrived in recent years. As a key achievement for the Kingdom’s tourism and sporting authorities, Saudi Arabia secured the rights to host the 2034 FIFA World Cup. The tournament is expected to feature 48 national teams competing across 15 stadia including in Riyadh, Jeddah and Al Khobar, and will be a major boost to the country’s tourism, hospitality and construction industries as the Kingdom works towards the flagship event. All of these measures are being reflected in a substantial increase in visitor numbers.
Shifting Gears
With the announcement of the 2026 budget, the government indicated that Vision 2030 had entered a more outcome-focused phase, with greater emphasis on maximising the economic impact of reforms and investments already under way. As the programme matures, policy attention will be increasingly centred on capital efficiency, delivery timelines and measurable returns. This evolution has been reflected in a more pragmatic sequencing of large-scale investment. While earlier budget statements placed strong emphasis on giga-projects as catalysts for transformation, the 2026 budget focused instead on consolidating progress in areas that have demonstrated clear economic traction. The government indicated that future spending would prioritise initiatives with proven delivery models, even if this required rephasing or recalibrating others.
Within this context, high-profile developments such as NEOM remain part of the Kingdom’s longterm strategic vision, but near-term priorities are increasingly oriented towards projects capable of delivering faster economic returns and supporting scalable growth. These include investment in digital infrastructure, artificial intelligence, data centres, advanced manufacturing and tourism-related assets, particularly as the Kingdom prepares to host major international events such as Expo 2030 and the 2034 FIFA World Cup. Taken together, this shift reflects a broader transition from policy design and ambition-setting towards execution, optimisation and economic consolidation, as Vision 2030 enters its final and most commercially focused phase.
Macroeconomic Parameters
The next phase of Vision 2030 is unfolding against a backdrop of shifting global economic conditions and the policymakers are increasingly focused on ensuring that the reforms enacted between 2016-25 translate into durable, broad-based growth. Recent economic assessments underscore the resilience of the Saudi economy despite external pressures. According to the General Authority for Statistics, the country’s real GDP expanded by around 5% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, with non-oil activities growing by 4.5% and government services by 1.8%. This performance reflects the continued strength of domestic demand, the steady expansion of services, and the maturing of several diversification initiatives. The Council of Economic and Development Affairs noted in its July 2025 review that the Kingdom had recorded four consecutive quarters of non-oil growth, supported by a rising purchasing managers’ index and improved business sentiment. These indicators suggest that the structural reforms introduced between 2016 and 2025 are beginning to embed themselves more firmly within the Kingdom’s economy.
At the same time, the macroeconomic environment remains shaped by the interplay between oil market dynamics and the government’s investment-led diversification strategy. While production cuts for members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other allied oil-producing nations (collectively known as OPEC+) may have constrained headline GDP growth, non-oil activity has remained robust, driven by consumption and large-scale public investment. This financing push, however, has contributed to widening fiscal deficits and increased debt issuance, underscoring the financial pressures associated with an ambitious transformation programme. Saudi Arabia retains substantial fiscal space, supported by strong reserves and the capacity to raise debt at favourable rates.
Non-Oil Growth
The government’s own projections reinforce this narrative of cautious optimism. In its economic report from the first quarter of 2025, the Ministry of Economy and Planning (MEP) anticipated that global growth will remain subdued in the medium term. However, the authority expects the country’s domestic economy would continue to expand, supported by non-oil industries, stable inflation, and ongoing investment in infrastructure and technology. Wholesale and retail trade, hospitality, communications, transport and construction were key drivers of non-oil GDP growth of 4.4% in 2025. These sectors have been notable beneficiaries of the Kingdom’s diversification agenda, particularly as tourism, logistics and entertainment have become central pillars of the country’s economic policy.
The fiscal framework underpinning Vision 2030 has also evolved. The 2026 budget statement, analysed by global consultancy firm KPMG emphasised fiscal discipline and transparency, with projected revenue of over SR1.1trn ($293.3bn) and expenditure of SR1.3trn ($346.6bn). The budget anticipates a narrowing deficit and highlights the government’s commitment to maintaining investment in priority sectors while managing fiscal risks prudently.
Tourism, Culture & Sport
Tourism continues to be one of the most dynamic components of this transformation. According to the Saudi Tourism Authority, the Kingdom led the G20 in the growth rate of international visitors in 2024, supported by major projects such as The Red Sea development, the luxury destination Amaala and the establishment of the UN World Tourism Organisation’s first regional office in Riyadh. The sector’s rapid expansion has been accompanied by significant investment in hospitality infrastructure, transport links and cultural initiatives, positioning tourism as both an economic driver and a tool for social modernisation.
The pace and scale of the transformation have encouraged periodic recalibration. As Vision 2030 enters its final five years, the government is placing greater emphasis on capital discipline and the sequencing of investments to ensure that projects deliver measurable economic returns. This approach is shaping the implementation of giga-projects, which continue to anchor the long-term development strategy, while being aligned more closely with funding availability, delivery capacity and market demand.
Within this framework, projects such as NEOM, The Red Sea development and Qiddiya remain priorities, even as elements are phased to reflect evolving economic and logistical considerations. International analysts have noted that some large-scale developments are being re-sequenced to optimise execution and manage risk, rather than scaled back in ambition. The resumption of construction on the Jeddah Tower project, which is set to become the world’s tallest building, underscores both the practical challenges involved in mega-project delivery and the Kingdom’s continued appetite for landmark investments.
Major global events are set to shape the final phase of Vision 2030, with Expo 2030 and the 2034 FIFA World Cup expected to accelerate investment in transport, hospitality and urban development, while providing an global platform to showcase the Kingdom’s social and economic transformation. At the same time, economic strategy is increasingly oriented towards technology-led growth, with artificial intelligence, data centres and high-tech manufacturing identified by the MEP as priority areas. Together, these dynamics underline a transition towards productivity, innovation and higher-value activity, reinforcing the Kingdom’s ambition to generate skilled employment, attract foreign investment and sustain non-oil development beyond the Vision 2030 horizon, even as policymakers place greater emphasis on execution, returns and long-term economic resilience.
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