The GCC’s population more than doubled over the past 28 years, growing from 26.2m in 1995 to 57.6m in 2023, outpacing the global growth rate of 40%. Urbanisation has also accelerated across the region, driven by rapid economic development, migration and the concentration of economic activities in urban centres. Members of the GCC had the highest urbanisation rates in the Arab world as of 2015, at 82.2%. Qatar, Kuwait and Oman achieved urbanisation rates of 99.2%, 98.3% and 77.6%, respectively, while the UAE and Saudi Arabia both exceeded 80%. Meanwhile, the GCC’s urbanisation rate is expected to rise to 95.1% by 2050.
Urban Challenges
Growing urban populations have catalysed a variety of road-related problems across the GCC, ranging from pollution to traffic congestion. The transport sector is estimated to be responsible for up to 50% of particulate emissions in developing countries, compared to 30% in developed countries. In 2023 Saudi Arabia had a per-capita emissions rate of 19.5 tonnes, the highest among G20 countries. In 2023 Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE were ranked among the top-15 most polluted countries based on particulate matter (PM2.5) levels, according to IQA ir, a Swiss air quality technology company. IQA ir measures countries’ compliance with the World Health Organisation’s air quality standards, which set a safe level for PM2.5 at 5 micrograms per cubic metre (µg/m³). According to the US-based non-profit Berkeley Earth, inhaling 22 µg/m³ of PM2.5 is equivalent to smoking one cigarette daily, meaning residents of these countries effectively breathe the equivalent of 1.5-2 cigarettes daily.
The impact of traffic is not limited to health concerns, however; it also extends to significant economic losses due to urban congestion. In 2018 traffic congestion and road accidents alone were estimated to cost the Saudi economy about $21bn annually, or around 2.9% of the Kingdom’s GDP. Similarly, in 2017, Dubai faced road-related costs of $950m due to emergency and medical expenses, lost work hours, fuel and the environmental impact of increased pollution. A 2023 report by Strategy& Middle East and the Fédération Internationale de l’Automobile (FIA) highlighted that the region could save 2800 lives annually and reduce fatalities by 22% by ensuring that 75% of travel occurs on roads with recommended safety standards, contributing to $250bn in economic growth over 20 years.
A main contributing factor has been the lower utilisation of public transport, with 17.5% of people using it for daily trips in Dubai, around one-half that figure in Riyadh, 4.9% in Abu Dhabi and even smaller proportions in other major GCC cities. This contrasts sharply with 59% in New York, 33% in Tokyo, and 37% in London. To address this issue, a raft of public transport infrastructure projects are under way across the GCC region.
The Metro system in Riyadh, completed in December 2024, consists of six lines spanning a total length of 176 km with 84 stations. Touted as one of the largest metro projects in the world, it aims to transport 1.2m passengers daily in its initial phase and eventually 3.6m at full capacity, with the goal of increasing the public transport usage rate to 20%. However, due to the challenges and the complexities involved in shifting consumer behaviour, relying solely on traditional infrastructure investment may not be a comprehensive solution.
Tech Upgrades
To cope with the intensifying issues from urbanisation and congestion, smart cities are increasingly seen as a way to create urban ecosystems using digital technology to improve services and make cities more liveable. Solutions range from reducing traffic jams to better waste management. The Saudi government has committed $500bn to developing NEOM, a futuristic desert mega-city project situated in the north-western region of the Kingdom spanning around 26,500 sq km. Focusing on sustainability and advanced technologies, NEOM features The Line, a linear city spanning 170 km in length. Set to take a centry to completed, it is intended to house 9m people, and will be 100% car-free and powered by renewable energy.
