The EU has continued to scale back its reliance on Russian oil, deepening its strategic response to Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. After the bloc imposed bans on Russian seaborne crude in December 2022 and oil products in February 2023, the region has systematically sought alternative suppliers. In 2024 EU petroleum oil imports fell by 2.4% in volume and 4.7% in value compared to 2023, reflecting both reduced dependence on Russia and broader economic adjustments.
The region remains committed to phasing out Russian energy imports by 2027, a move that has reshaped global trade flows and forced traditional suppliers to pivot to alternative markets like China, India and Turkey. These countries have absorbed much of Russia’s displaced oil, often at discounted rates.
Meeting European Demand
Norway has maintained its role as a consistent and stable supplier, providing 13.5% of EU oil imports in 2024. The country’s offshore fields, particularly Johan Sverdrup, continue to deliver medium sour crude similar in quality to banned Russian grades. While Norway hasn’t dramatically increased output, its reliability and geographic proximity make it a core pillar in Europe’s diversification strategy. Meanwhile, the US has become Europe’s most important oil partner, reaching record crude export volumes of 4.1m barrels per day in 2023 – a 13% increase over the previous year. By 2024 the US accounted for 16.1% of the EU’s petroleum oil imports, overtaking Norway and Kazakhstan. This surge is attributed to strong US production from shale basins, softer domestic demand and Washington’s political alignment with European energy security goals. The diversity of US grades and reliability of supply has helped fill the gap left by Russian Urals crude. With continued investment in export infrastructure, US shipments to Europe are expected to remain strong in 2025.
Among emerging markets, Saudi Arabia’s direct crude exports to the EU have declined sharply. In 2024, seaborne shipments to the region dropped by 66.2%, from 5.8m tonnes to just 1.9m tonnes. This decline reflects the kingdom’s strategic realignment toward Asia, where long-term contracts and rising demand offer more stable returns. While Saudi Arabia remains the world’s largest seaborne crude exporter, Europe now plays a smaller role in its export mix. Instead, increased volumes are being directed to countries like China and India.
Latin America’s Potential
Brazil has been redirecting more of its crude oil exports toward the EU, making the region its second-largest destination after China. Crude oil ended 2024 as Brazil’s top export, with combined shipments of crude and mineral oils totaling $44.8bn, according to January 2025 data from the foreign trade secretariat of the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services. Pre-salt oil reservoirs were key to this expansion. The National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels reported that Brazil produced 36.9m barrels between January and November 2024, with 71.5% from pre-salt fields – rising to 80.3% in the second half of the year.
Meanwhile, Guyana has emerged as a fast-growing energy partner for Europe. Oil exports surged by 54% in 2024 reaching 582,000 bpd. Of that volume, 66% was directed to Europe, up from 62% in 2023. The country’s light, sweet crude has become particularly attractive for European refiners seeking easy-to-process alternatives to Russian oil. Guyana’s growth trajectory is underpinned by international investment and favourable geological conditions.
Chad’s Doba crude has gained traction in the European market following stricter fuel standards across the Mediterranean. In April 2025 Dutch and German refineries purchased all four available cargoes of Doba – a low-sulfur crude – due to its compliance with new International Maritime Organisation regulations. The Mediterranean’s 2025 designation as an emission control area has boosted demand for ultra-low sulfur fuels, positioning Doba as a niche but valuable supply option.
