Djibouti is a small country on good terms with its neighbours and a range of global powers. Despite domestic challenges related to the country’s economy and infrastructure, political life has been relatively peaceful in recent years, with strong continuity of leadership and economic growth.
Political System
Djibouti is a unitary, democratic republic with a constitutional and legal system based on the French Napoleonic Code. The country has universal suffrage, under which the president – as the head of state and chief executive power – is directly elected. It also has a unicameral National Assembly led by the prime minister. Laws may be proposed by either the president or by members of the assembly, and they are passed by an absolute majority, with no presidential veto. However, laws may be referred to the Constitutional Council for an assessment of whether they comply with the constitution.
The president is directly elected to a five-year term, and there is no limit on the number of terms that can be served. The president then appoints a Council of Ministers, or Cabinet, and the prime minister to lead it. Traditionally, the president has been a member of the Issa clan, while the prime minister has been a member of the Afar, with Cabinet posts split between the two groups. The president is also commander-in-chief of Djibouti’s army, navy, air force and National Gendarmerie units.
The current president is Ismaïl Omar Guelleh, who has served in the role since 1999, while Abdoulkader Kamil Mohamed has been the prime minister since 2013. President Guelleh has won every election since becoming the country’s leader, winning 97% of the 177,391 votes cast in the last election in April 2021, according to official data. The next election is scheduled to take place in 2026, and President Guelleh has so far said that he plans not to run for a sixth term, in line with the constitutional restriction on those 75 and older holding the country’s highest office.
The unicameral National Assembly has 65 members elected to five-year terms from multi-seat constituencies. The assembly elects a president, who convenes sessions and nominates two of the six members of the Constitutional Council, and has the power to propose bills. Mohamed Ali Houmed has been president of the assembly since 2015.
The current chamber was voted in following elections in February 2018, and a new round of elections to the assembly is expected in 2023. The 2018 election used a closed-list system for the first time, with 80% of the seats in each constituency awarded to the party with the most votes and the remainder distributed proportionately among parties receiving more than 10% of the total vote. There is also a 25% quota for female members. The election saw the coalition Union for the Presidential Majority (Union pour la Majorité Présidentielle, UMP) achieve a decisive majority in the National Assembly, winning 57 seats, after the Movement for Democratic Renewal and Development boycotted the election. A coalition of the opposition Union for Democracy and Justice and the Djibouti Party for Development won seven seats, while the Centre of Unified Democrats won one.
The UMP, whose main parties have dominated Djibouti’s political landscape for decades, comprises the People’s Rally for Progress (Rassemblement Populaire pour le Progrès, RPP), whose members are predominantly Issa, and the Front for the Restoration of Unity and Democracy (Front pour la Restauration de l’Unité et de la Démocratie, FRUD), which is mostly Afar. The coalition’s three other parties are the National Democratic Party, the Social Democratic People’s Party and the Union of Reform Partisans.
Domestic Affairs
Administratively, the country is divided into five regions and the capital. These regions – Ali Sabieh, Arta, Dikhil, Obock and Tadjoura – are further subdivided into 20 districts. The districts are then subdivided into municipalities and communes, although Djibouti City has 21 subdistricts of its own. The neighbouring suburb of Balbala, with 14 subdistricts, is considered part of Djibouti City.
Decentralisation was firmly placed on the country’s political agenda as part of the 2001 settlement that put a formal end to the conflict between proRPP and pro-FRUD forces. Although the unrest first broke out in 1991, it had largely come to an end by 1994. Since 2006 the government has worked to transfer powers and resources from the state to local authorities, including through the division of the country into five regions. The first elections for regional assemblies were held in 2006, with the RPP and FRUD dominating the vote. Other parties have made inroads since then, as opposition candidates won seats in Djibouti City during municipal elections held in February 2017. The fourth municipal elections since the adoption of the law on decentralisation enacted in 2006 were held in March 2022, resulting in a sweeping victory for the UMP, although opposition lists were not fielded across all regions.
Kassim Haroun Ali, the minister in charge of decentralisation, is over seeing the further devolution of powers to the regions. The government hopes that decentralisation will increase political participation and efficiency, as well as spur regional economic growth. The initiative is being combined with efforts to improve access to information, such as by making radio and TV more widely available in rural areas.
Courts of Law
The judicial system consists of French law, Islamic law and local customary law, and there are three separate court systems. Civil matters are seen to by customary courts, which exist at the trial level in each region and in the capital, with an appeals court located in Djibouti City. Family matters under the jurisdiction of Islamic law are dealt with in sharia courts, and there is a similar system of trial and appellate bodies in place. The third, French-modelled system deals with criminal and civil cases, with the Supreme Court (SC) at its head. The SC can hear appeals from the customary and sharia courts.
Members of the SC are appointed by the president on the advice of the Superior Council of the Magistry. The latter joins with the president and the speaker of the National Assembly to pick the six members of the Constitutional Council, which holds the power of judicial review and is a court of last resort. The council members serve eight-year terms.
National Security
Bordering Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia, Djibouti’s relations with its immediate neighbours have been key to maintaining stability and peace within the country. Fortunately, these relations have largely been successful, with Djibouti staying out of armed conflicts in the region. In contrast, Djibouti has periodically become a refuge for people displaced by turbulence in their home countries.
An exception to this was in 2008, when a long-standing disagreement with Eritrea over the boundary demarcation in the Dumeira Mountain and Island region led to two days of armed clashes, in which the UN Security Council concluded that Eritrea was the aggressor. The dispute was referred to Qatar for mediation, but Qatari peacekeepers withdrew from the region in 2017. Djibouti’s request for an African Union fact-finding mission was met with no response from Eritrea. The border remains quiet today, although the dispute lacks a clear resolution.
Djibouti also lies close to conflicts across the Red Sea in Yemen and next door in Somalia, while the Gulf of Aden and seas off the Somali coast have been flashpoints for piracy. As a safe haven strategically located within this area, Djibouti has become a base for many international operations and global powers. The port is now home to military bases for China, France, Italy, Japan and the US, with the French base also housing German and Spanish troops. These foreign missions serve both as a testament to Djibouti’s ability to steer a path of friendship between many competing powers, and as a welcome injection of foreign investment into the country’s growing economy.
Moving Forwards
Since the effective end of the civil conflict in 1994, Djibouti has successfully maintained an alliance in the government between its main ethnic and linguistic groups. Its political landscape has also changed from single-party rule to multi-party democracy – an often difficult transition, though one Djibouti has achieved largely peacefully.
Challenges like unemployment and poverty, however, still present difficulties for individuals and the government. Meanwhile, low voter turnout and election boycotts by some opposition groups have raised questions of representation and inclusion.
Nonetheless, the economy has expanded significantly under the current government, with growth reaching 5.5% in 2017 and 2019, according to data from the IMF, before falling to 1.2% in 2020 due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. GDP growth recovered to 4.8% in 2021 before dipping to 2.5% in 2022, though the IMF projects that the rate of expansion will accelerate to 4% in 2023 and 6% in 2024.
Infrastructure development and increased foreign direct investment are major economic policy goals. To this end, the government’s Djibouti Vision 2035 development blueprint targets the consolidation of the country’s regional integration objectives while simultaneously boosting Djibouti’s role as a major base for communications and trade within the Horn of Africa and lower Red Sea regions. Djibouti aims to achieve the status of a middle-income country by 2035, which would ensure a strong foundation for its continued development.
Djibouti Vision 2035
Based on five pillars – national peace and unity, good governance, a diversified and competitive economy, the consolidation of human capital, and regional integration and international cooperation – Djibouti Vision 2035 addresses underdevelopment outside of Djibouti City, food insecurity and drought, illiteracy, poverty and the transition to private sector-driven economic growth. Released in 2015, the programme lays out specific goals, such as creating 200,000 jobs and tripling per capita income, along with a focus on specific sectors, including agriculture, logistics, ICT, financial services, manufacturing, renewable energy and tourism.
The vision also highlights the need for promoting gender equality to build on the progress made in recent decades. The World Bank’s “Women, Business and the Law 2022” report states that 2.4bn working-age women around the world lack equal economic opportunity, with legal frameworks in 178 countries limiting equal economic participation and access. Women in Djibouti received a score of 68 out of 100 compared to the global average of 76.5, with 100 indicating full legal parity. However, Djibouti performed particularly well in certain categories, receiving scores of 100 in mobility, workplace and entrepreneurship. The average was weighed down by low scores in the areas of pay, assets and marriage. The participation of women in the labour force stood at 17.2% in 2021 versus 44.1% for men, according to data from the World Bank. The same study highlighted that 14.2% of firms had a female executive, an outcome driven in part by educational factors. In 2021, 56.3% of girls in Djibouti finished their lower-secondary education, significantly better than the completion rate of 28.6% reported in 2009.
Development Planning
In February 2022 Djibouti launched an updated version of its National Development Plan 2020-24 as part of Djibouti Vision 2035. Accounting for the effects of the pandemic, the plan lays out a near-term roadmap for development that prioritises social and economic inclusion, in part by leveraging digital technologies. In line with the UN Sustainable Development Goals, the programme requires approximately DJF2.5bn ($14.1m).
The fifth pillar of Djibouti Vision 2035 – regional integration and international cooperation – underscores the importance of regional trade and economic ties. The national development strategy seeks to take advantage of communications technology to create a commercial integration and services platform that would make Djibouti an axis for connectivity and trade in the region, building on the strength of its physical logistics infrastructure and geostrategic location. Djibouti belongs to a number of trade agreements and economic zones, including the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, the Tripartite Free Trade Area, the African Continental Free Trade Area and COMESA.
Further afield, Djibouti has continued to strengthen its relations with Asia. Due to its proximity to the equator, which allows for fuel savings since launched satellites can take greater advantage of the earth’s rotational speed, Djibouti secured a deal in January 2023 with Chinese multinational Hong Kong Aero Tech to build a $1bn satellite and rocket launch site, which could result in the launch of the first-ever African-made satellite from the continent.
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