On scaling up production capacity
What are the prospects for scaling up oil production, and in what ways has the sector maintained stability amid persistent challenges?
PEDRO RIBEIRO: Despite headwinds, national production has remained relatively steady at around 1.3-1.4m barrels per day (bpd), highlighting both the strength of the hydrocarbon base and the adaptability of operators working within a challenging environment. However, the industry is now entering a more complex phase. Natural decline from mature fields – estimated at around 5% annually – poses a structural challenge that cannot be overcome through maintenance alone. To achieve the national target of 2m bpd, significant investment is required. Estimates suggest between $40bn and $50bn in capital expenditure will be needed over the next five years. This includes funds to offset decline, develop new fields and upgrade infrastructure. The geological potential to support expansion exists, but the scale and pace of progress will depend on a conducive business environment and investor confidence. Strategic prioritisation will be essential, particularly when balancing marginal fields with high-capital, high-yield projects.
How can natural gas resources be more effectively capitalised, while preserving the continued diver-sification of the energy mix?
RIBEIRO: Official natural gas production figures currently stand at around 2.4bn standard cu feet per day (scfd), yet much of the gas potential remains underdeveloped. Proximity to Europe, coupled with infrastructure such as the Greenstream pipeline, positions the country as a competitive supplier to Mediterranean markets. As Europe moves to diversify its gas supply chain, Libya can emerge as a cost-effective alternative. At the same time, boosting domestic gas utilisation can help rebalance the energy mix away from heavier fuels.
In parallel, renewables – particularly solar – present a major opportunity. Libya’s solar irradiance is among the highest globally, and its location offers future potential for electricity transmission to Europe. A major photo-voltaic project under development near Misrata, for instance, aims to produce 500MW of clean electricity. The project’s design is intended to displace power currently generated using gas and fuel oil, providing a dual benefit: lowering emissions and freeing up hydro-carbons for export. This aligns with a broader goal of eliminating routine gas flaring by 2030. Such initiatives also offer a path to energy diversification without compromising production ambitions. Solar and gas, far from being competing solutions, can work in tandem to meet both economic and environmental objectives.
To what extent can hydrocarbon output be realistically increased while also achieving measurable reductions in greenhouse gas emissions?
RIBEIRO: The goals of increasing production and cutting emissions can be pursued in parallel through disciplined investment and sound planning. Field development strategies are integrating lower-emission technologies, including zero-flaring designs in new projects. In older facilities, flaring reduction involves complex cost-benefit considerations – particularly in isolated fields. Nonetheless, the industry has access to proven techniques to achieve emissions reductions, even in mature basins. Enhanced oil recovery methods, such as water or gas injection and tertiary techniques like polymer or miscible gas injection, offer avenues for maximising output while lowering the carbon intensity per barrel produced. These methods could be gradually phased into the production portfolio. The cumulative impact of such initiatives could shift the emissions trajectory without capping growth. Ultimately, integrating emission reduction goals into field planning from the outset, rather than treating them as a retrofit challenge, will determine long-term sustainability. With clear regulatory alignment and strong investor commitment, further production can be unlocked together with the development of a lower-carbon energy model.
This interview serves as a preview of the in-depth analysis coming in The Report: Libya 2025.
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