On cleaner energy, sustainability and Libya’s energy roadmap
What technical and operational measures are key to achieving 2m barrels per day (bdp) by 2030?
M. KHALIFA ABDULSADEK: Libya’s production trajectory reflects both its historical capacity and the challenges faced in recent decades. At its peak in the early 1970s, output exceeded 3m bpd, but successive non-technical disruptions—including sanctions, conflict, and infrastructure degradation—caused recurring declines. Today, production stands at approximately 1.4m bpd, with a near-term target of regaining the pre-2011 benchmark of 1.6m bpd. Reaching 2m bpd by 2030 will require strategic investments across three fronts: redeveloping mature fields, bringing long-discovered but undeveloped greenfield sites online, and unlocking marginal reserves that have long been underutilised.
Equally important is the parallel expansion of downstream capacity. Current refining throughput remains below 160,000 bpd—well short of domestic demand. Plans are under way to more than double this to over 400,000 bpd, enabling both import substitution and product exports. This integrated approach ensures that upstream growth does not strain OPEC coordination, while bolstering energy security and value addition at home.
What steps are being taken to attract international capital, particularly for the 2025 licensing round?
ABDULSADEK: Recent efforts to revitalise investment frameworks reflect a reassessment of past licensing models. A dual-track review was undertaken: an internal audit of historical licensing inefficiencies, and an external benchmarking study led by global consultancy Wood Mackenzie. This analysis highlighted the need for more competitive fiscal terms and clearer risk-sharing mechanisms. Crucially, it also included direct feedback from existing and prospective international partners, whose concerns were incorporated into a restructured model.
The new regime has already demonstrated its appeal. Over 40 international firms—ranging from IOCs to agile independents—qualified for participation, following a rigorous prequalification phase. Interest has spanned geographies, including North America, Europe, Southeast Asia, and MENA. This diversity underscores growing confidence in Libya’s upstream potential and in the measures taken to align fiscal conditions with global standards. The ongoing licensing round is not just a bid to raise output—it is a deliberate effort to reset investor expectations and re-establish Libya as a competitive exploration frontier.
How is Libya positioning itself to support Europe’s cleaner energy transition?
ABDULSADEK: Europe’s shift towards cleaner fuels presents a significant opportunity for Libya, given its proximity, infrastructure, and untapped gas reserves. The Greenstream pipeline, which links Libya directly to Italy, has the capacity to transport around 11bcm annually. However, actual utilisation has fallen below 25% of this figure, mainly due to delayed upstream gas developments. Filling this strategic artery remains a top priority. Key developments in the Mediterranean—particularly the Structures A&E gas fields in partnership with ENI—are poised to contribute an additional 760m standard cu feet (scf) per day. This will help offset offshore production declines and meet both domestic and export requirements. At the same time, a phased strategy to upgrade evacuation systems, including a 42-inch trunk line from the Sirte Basin to the coast, will enable greater collection of associated gas currently stranded across scattered fields.
Gas flaring reduction is another pillar of this approach. Libya has committed to eliminating routine flaring by 2030, and several projects are already under way to meet this goal. The Bouri Gas Utilisation project alone is expected to capture 120m scf per day, while parallel initiatives across other fields are being implemented. Infrastructure improvements, including coastal gathering networks, are essential to this effort. The aim is not only to enhance environmental performance but also to re-channel captured gas into power generation and exports, reinforcing Libya’s role as a reliable partner in Europe’s low-carbon transition.
How are sustainable practices being integrated into Libya’s energy roadmap?
ABDULSADEK: A structured strategy is being pursued that places conventional priorities—such as brownfield redevelopment and greenfield development—alongside long-term sustainability goals. While upstream recovery remains the short- to medium-term driver, renewable energy is gaining traction as a strategic enabler. Solar power, in particular, is being explored to reduce reliance on diesel and heavy fuel oil for electricity generation, freeing up more gas for export.
Carbon capture and storage has also entered the investment horizon. The CO₂ sequestration component of the A&E project, valued at nearly $1bn, reflects this commitment. Libya’s roadmap aligns with global climate frameworks, including pledges to the UN’s COP process, and actively seeks to balance hydrocarbons monetisation with environmental stewardship. The energy transition is not viewed as a threat, but rather as an opportunity to future-proof the sector, diversify energy offerings, and ensure Libya remains a relevant and competitive supplier in a rapidly evolving global market.
This interview serves as a preview of the in-depth analysis coming in The Report: Libya 2025.
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