Algeria’s growth over the past decades has been driven in large part by heavy government spending, which is enabled by the country’s vast hydrocarbons wealth. As a result, as oil prices dropped – by almost 70% between the summer of 2014 and the beginning of 2016 — the consequences for the economy were significant, with Algeria experiencing a current account deficit equivalent to around 18% of its GDP as of December 2016. This has been exacerbated by sectoral constraints, including maturing production in oil fields and gas fields, and limited interest from international majors in upstream bidding rounds. However, the government – in part through Sonatrach, the state-owned oil firm (and one of Africa’s largest companies) — has been looking to loosen regulations to stimulate new investment to help develop the country’s large shale deposits. With two-thirds of the territory still unexplored and the EU export market next door, there is still plenty of scope to expand both production and revenues even amidst the current low price environment.
The low oil prices have had a strong effect on Algeria’s trade balance and hydrocarbons earnings in 2015 and 2016. The country’s energy earnings dropped nearly 41% in 2015 compared to 2014, from $60.3bn (€54.4bn) in 2014 to $35.7bn (€32.2bn) in 2015. This drop triggered a $13.7bn (€12.4bn) trade deficit — a radical turn away from the surplus of $4.3bn (€3.9bn) experienced in 2014. The low oil price climate continued to have an effect on Algeria’s trade deficit in the first quarter of 2016, reaching $5.6bn (€5bn) in that period compared to $3.5bn (€3.2bn) in the first quarter of 2015, prompting the IMF to warn the Algerian government of the need to buffer against the negative role played by low oil prices.
In February 2016 Algeria began talks with different oil-producing countries to try and build a consensus around an organised decline in production, and warned that it would not participate in the OPEC meeting should an agreement on a decline in production not be reached beforehand. The country’s efforts, alongside other producers with high break-even prices, including Nigeria and Venezuela, were ultimately successful, with OPEC preliminarily agreeing to cut overall production in September 2016 by 700,000 barrels per day (bpd), which should help lend upward momentum to Algeria’s revenues. However, it will be some time before the impacts of the reduction are felt, and the government also expects energy-related earnings to fall another 26%, from $35.7bn (€32.2bn) in 2015 to a forecast $26.4bn (€23.8bn) in 2016, according to Reuters.
According to BP’s 2016 “Statistical Review of World Energy”, Algeria has estimated reserves of 12.2bn barrels of crude oil, the fourth largest in Africa after Libya (48.4bn barrels), Nigeria (37.1bn barrels) and Angola (12.7bn barrels).
The country is the third-largest crude oil producer on the African continent at an estimated 1.59m bpd in 2015, after Nigeria (2.3m bpd) and Angola (1.8m bpd). Production had risen by some 8% between 2013 and 2014, from a 10-year low of 1.48m bpd in 2013 to around 1.6m bpd in 2014. This recent peak was followed by a dip of 0.4% in 2015.
In terms of production, the country’s estimated output for 2016 increased to 69m tonnes of oil equivalent (toe), up nearly 3% from the previous year, where output was around 67m toe. According to a report published by Sonatrach, the government expects to see production rise 8% by 2017 to 75m toe, and almost 9% in the three years following to hit 82m toe by 2020.
Additionally, Algeria holds the second-largest reserves of natural gas in Africa. At 4.5trn cu metres, the country comes in second to Nigeria’s 5.1trn cu metres. However, in terms of output, Algeria is the continent’s largest producer of natural gas, with estimated production levels of 83bn cu metres in 2015, corresponding to 74.7m toe.
Between 2005 and 2015, natural gas production decreased by nearly 6%, from an 88.2bn cu metres peak in 2005 to 83bn cu metres in 2015, with a 10-year low of 79.6bn cu metres recorded in 2009.
GAS: The country’s current gas production enables Algeria to meet 63% of its domestic needs, and represents about 41% of its primary hydrocarbons production as well as 52% of its hydrocarbons exports. State-owned oil and gas company Sonatrach is the largest natural gas producer, operating both independently and alongside foreign operators like French hydrocarbons operators Total and Engie (ex-GDF Suez), Italian major Eni, Spain’s Repsol and UK company BG Group. The bulk of Algeria’s natural gas production comes from the Hassi R’Mel natural gas field, located in the wilaya (province) of Laghouat some 550 km south of the capital, Algiers. Discovered in 1956, the Hassi R’Mel gas field began production in 1961. With estimated reserves of about 2.4trn cu metres and probable reserves somewhere between 2.7trn cu metres and 3trn cu metres, the field is considered the largest in Algeria and one of the biggest gas fields in the world. Since its discovery, the field has had an annual production of about 100bn cu metres, though production has been steadily declining in recent years, down to 75bn cu metres in 2008, and 55bn cu metres in 2012.
The rest of the country’s natural gas production comes from both associated and non-associated maturing fields located in the south and south-east. The largest fields in that area are part of the In Salah project — jointly operated by BP, Statoil and Sonatrach — and producing 9bn cu metres from the Krechba, Teg and Reg fields. Following the January 2013 terrorist incident at the In Amenas plant, which is operated by the In Salah joint venture, process output dipped below its average of 7.8bn cu metres of gas per year, but it has since recovered to full capacity.
The government is looking to increase gas production by 13% by 2019, so as to better balance the rising domestic demand. Part of this strategy entails investing close to €35bn for enhanced recovery techniques to maximise recovery in maturing fields such as the Hassi R’Mel field. Another part entails investing to improve Algeria’s gas transport facilities to strengthen infrastructure, including expanding gas transportation capacity by 18.3bn cu metres per year by 2019. In July 2016 Sonatrach signed two agreements with public contractors for the construction of a 344-km gas pipeline between El Menia and Hassi R’Mel at a cost of more than AD38.9bn (€321.8m).
The project, dubbed the GR7 pipeline, is expected to deliver additional production from the new fields of Hassi Mouina, Hassa Ba Hamou and Ahnet — all due to come on-line by 2019 — to the National Gas Dispatching Centre (Centre National de Dispatching de Gas, CNDG), located at Hassi R’Mel. By 2020 the GR7 pipeline is due to transport about 22.21bn sq metres of gas to the CNDG.
In addition to Hassi Mouina, Hassa Ba Hamou and Ahnet, which are being developed by Sonatrach and Norway-based Statoil, and should yield an additional 7.2bn cu metres of gas annually, several more fields will begin producing in the coming years. Around 20 new fields are expected to come on-line by 2020, including seven from the South-West Gas Project (SWGP). The SWGP is expected to add 16bn cu metres to Algeria’s annual gas production by 2018, with a first-phase development of the Touat (Engie), Reggane North (Repsol) and Timimoun (Total) fields expected by 2017. The SWGP is being funded by Sonatrach, and is set to receive €2.9bn in funding between 2016 and 2020, with the company investing €478m in 2016 alone.
Algeria produced 1.6m bpd of crude oil in 2015, according to BP’s 2016 “Statistical Review of World Energy”. Sonatrach operates the country’s largest field, the nearly 60 year old Hassi Messaoud, with a crude oil output of about 500,000 bpd, equal to over a third of national crude oil output. The field, which is located in the Hassi Messaoud Dahar province, holds around 71% of the country’s proven, probable and possible oil reserves, and has an estimated 3.9bn barrels of recoverable reserves.
Other large producing fields include the Hassi Berkine oilfield, which is operated jointly by Sonatrach and US oil and gas company Anadarko and produces between 100,000 and 150,000 bpd; and the Ourhoud oilfield, which produces some 150,000-200,000 bpd and is jointly operated by Sonatrach, Anadarko and Spain’s Compañia Española de Petroléos.
Recent years have seen only a handful of new sites come under production, with two fields entering operations in 2013 and 2015, respectively. The first, El Merk, was discovered in 1993 and commenced production in 2013. Output of crude oil, condensate and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) averaged 135,000 bpd as of 2015. Next came Bir Seba in October 2015 producing 20,000 bpd, with plans to double output to 40,000 bpd by 2020. “Two notable fields recently came on-line,” François Gauthier, general manager of Algiers Liason Office representing MAERSK oil in Algeria, told OBG. “A number of fields are also due on-line in 2017 and 2018.”
Crude oil production has been steadily on the decline over the past decade. On a macro level, between 2005 and 2015, crude oil production dropped by close to 20%, from 1.9m bpd in 2005 to the current rate of 1.59m. To accomplish its goal of increasing output, Sonatrach has been tendering large service contracts for cementing, pumping and revamping existing production systems. In May 2016 Sonatrach awarded $180m (€162.3m) worth of service contracts to four different oilfield services companies. US oilfield service firms Schlumberger and Weatherford were awarded a $75m (€67.6m) contract and an $11m (€9.9m) contract, respectively, while Baker Hughes through its Algerian subsidiary BJSP won a $50m (€45.1m) contract, and Emirati firm NPS was awarded the last contract, worth $44m (€39.7m). While the fields on which the work will be performed have not been disclosed, Sonatrach confirmed that the contracts are primarily for cementing and pumping. Additionally, Sonatrach awarded a $339m (€305.6m) contract to Japanese contractor GJC to revamp and improve the existing system of production at the Hassi Messaoud oilfield.
In a bid to offset declining production and attract more exploration projects, state-owned Sonatrach announced it would invest over €57bn to drill 125 wells per year, as well as conduct annual seismic mapping over an area of 25,000 sq km to identify potential areas for future exploration — onshore as well as offshore. After investing more than €27bn between 2012 and 2015 in exploration activities, Sonatrach discovered three new fields, including two oilfields near the town of Touggourt in the south-east of the country as well as in Ghardaia, a town about 300 km west of Touggourt. Combined with the new El Bayadh gas field, these three discoveries have the combined potential of adding upwards of 4000 bpd to the country’s total energy output.
One area that may also help reverse the plateau of Algeria’s hydrocarbons production is unconventional resources. According to a 2013 study by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Algeria has an estimated 20trn cu metres of what is called “technically recoverable shale gas resources”, more than four times the country’s conventional gas reserves. The EIA even estimates this to be the third-largest technically recoverable shale gas reserves in the world after China and Argentina, placing Algeria slightly ahead of the US. Sonatrach has been working towards starting shale gas exploitation by 2020, with a targeted output level of 30bn cu metres in the first stage. However, the nearterm feasibility of shale gas exploitation, which tends to be more expensive than conventional production, is under pressure, given the current low prices.
Unsurprisingly, interest from majors has been modest. The government put 17 shale blocks on offer during the 2014 licensing round, with only one bid made on one of the blocks coming from a partnership between Statoil and Shell. This is in part due to the high prices, as well as local pushback, with anti-shale protests from residents over concerns related to the impact of fracking on water resources. Protests in 2015 were triggered over drilling work in areas of the Ahnet basin, where Sonatrach identified potential shale gas resources.
Algeria has struggled in recent years to attract foreign firms to bid on its oil and gas blocks. In the 2011 licensing round, with hydrocarbons prices among the highest levels in recent history, only two contracts were awarded out of 10 permits on offer. Similarly, despite changes in 2013 to the industry’s regulatory framework, only four contracts were awarded out of 31 licences out for tender during the 2014 bidding round. The four contracts won were nevertheless substantial, particularly with major players Shell, Statoil and Spain’s Repsol being awarded licences.
As a result, the government postponed the 2015 licensing round, citing concerns over the current price climate and a desire to overhauling the regulatory framework for the sector, and improving governance and oversight – including a shake-up in 2015 of Sonatrach leadership following a corruption scandal and changes to risk-sharing and stake negotiations.
In March 2016 Sonatrach announced plans to engage international energy companies in direct negotiations for the purchase of stakes in 20 oil and gas fields in central and southern Algeria. The fields, which Sonatrach acquired from the National Agency for Hydrocarbons Resources Valorisation (Agence Nationale pour la Valorisation des Resources en Hydrocarbures, ALNAFT) in September 2016 as part of a streamlining process, are located in the wilayas of Ouargla and Adrar as well as in Illizi, near the Libyan border.
In light of the progressive decline in production and exports, partly due to the increasing maturing of Algeria’s active oil and gas fields, expanding domestic consumption and demand, as well as the fall in demand from the US, the Algerian government is working towards amending energy sector legislation and making the country more attractive to foreign oil and gas companies. “After the attempts at bid rounds of the last seven or eight years, the government started consulting foreign oil and gas operators in 2016 to work on improving by raising interest and participation,” Toyoki Nishibayashi, general director at Irish oil and gas exploration and production company Petroceltic’s Algeria branch, told OBG.
One major change announced by Sonatrach in March 2016 was the simplifying of the negotiating process for foreign stakes in oil and gas fields. Traditionally, the state’s oil licensing body, ALNAFT, negotiated the stakes of foreign producers in Algerian oil and gas fields first, after which an international oil company would discuss details with Sonatrach on operational arrangements – a cumbersome and bureaucratic process which contributed to low interest in previous bidding rounds. Now, foreign oil and gas companies can directly negotiate their stakes, which remain subject to the 51:49 foreign ownership ceiling, with Sonatrach. The new simplified model is cheaper and more efficient, making it easier and more attractive for foreign investors to buy stakes in Algerian oil and gas fields.
Reforms to reduce risks: The government has also enacted a number of other reforms in recent years to reduce risk and account for more challenging exploration of offshore and unconventional fields. In 2013 amendments aimed to extend exploration licensing periods from seven to 11 years for conventional assets, and extent production periods for unconventional assets from 30 to 40 years, up from 25 to 30 years. Exploration costs continue to be covered by the operator during the exploration period, with subsequent recovery of funds up to the participatory share should the exploration turn into commercial production.
Traditionally, most contracts in Algeria follow a production-sharing model, which was implemented in the mid-1980s with Law 86/14, although the push for more expensive and riskier unconventional and offshore fields is affecting the attractiveness of this type of offering. The 2013 amendments to the Hydrocarbons Law also included a provision to ease the country’s tax regime. Foreign companies are now taxed based on profit instead of total revenues from a project, a move away from what some operators would call taxe sur le profit exceptionel (tax on exceptional profit), which was seen as a significant issue for oil and gas operators bearing the brunt of heavy and risky investments.
As a result of the spillover of instability from Libya and Mali, both of which have struggled with widespread violence and terrorism in recent years, Algeria has sought to improve the security environment for its large production sites in the south of the country. The importance of this was highlighted by the January 2013 attack on the BP and Statoil-operated Tigantourine gas facility in In Amenas, which resulted in the death of 39 hostages. In a separate attack, in March 2016, Al Qaeda militants launched a series of mortar strikes towards the Khrechba gas plant, located in the southern gas fields of In Salah.
While the attacks caused neither damage nor casualties, they further highlighted the security threat and the industry’s vulnerability in this respect. British operator BP and its partner, Norwegian oil and gas company Statoil announced in April 2016 that they would remove their international staff from two neighbouring gas plants, citing increased security concerns.
As a result, the Algerian government has taken strong measures to protect the country’s oil and gas infrastructures from these security risks, namely by replacing private security companies, which used to guard and protect the country’s hydrocarbons installations, with the military. The government has also expanded its military presence on the border, and multiplied anti-terror operations nationwide.
Government officials had predicted a 50% drop in oil and gas exports for 2015, due to a combination of factors including plateauing or declining domestic production and increased domestic demand alongside a drop in US demand, due the country raising domestic shale gas production. According to data released by the Ministry of Energy, total energy sales in 2015 stagnated at 100m toe, the same level as in 2014. In the first nine months of 2015, the country’s export volumes fell by 2.8%, with overall energy exports reaching 74.7m toe in that period, down from 76.9m exports dropped 7.5% and the sale of oil-refined products abroad fell 5.3% during the first nine months of 2015, according to local energy publication “Algerian Energy”. In the first quarter of 2016, Customs recorded a 39.7% drop in oil and gas exports The decline in exports is largely attributed to a drop in the country’s oil and gas production, coupled with a sharp rise in the country’s domestic demand. Indeed, demand in overall energy rose 7.5% in 2015, according to statistics from the Ministry of Energy, with natural gas consumption increasing 8% to close to 40bn cu metres, for instance.
The ministry also noted that refined products were more in demand; with a 5.7% increase in demand for gasoline and 5.6% more diesel oil used in 2015. In an attempt to curb demand and reduce domestic energy consumption, the government launched a campaign to reduce subsidies for electricity, gasoline and diesel, although this has had little impact on the current evolution of demand as yet.
In 2015 the country exported 540,000 bpd of crude oil, with 76% sent to Europe and 17% sent to the Americas. The country also exported 42.5bn cu metres of natural gas in 2014. Again, Europe received the vast majority of these exports, accounting for nearly 90%, which made Algeria the second-largest supplier of natural gas to Europe after Russia. Algeria has also inked a memorandum of understanding with Jordan in May 2016 for exports including oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and LPG, beginning as early as September 2016.
A rise in domestic demand has put exports and export revenues under increasing pressure. According to BP’s 2016 “Statistical Review of World Energy”, natural gas consumption increased 4.1% between 2014 and 2015, from 37.5m cu metres in 2014 to 39m cu metres in 2015. This number falls roughly in line with the Ministry of Energy’s forecast of 5% expansion for natural gas consumption in 2016, due to population growth and improved living standards. While the growth rate is lower than in many other markets on the African continent, the overall rise in recent years has been sizeable: since 2005, natural gas consumption has increased overall by 68%, from 23.2m cu metres in 2005 to 39m cu metres in 2015. Much of the consumption rise comes from electricity demands: 93% of the country’s power generation output comes from natural gas, and electricity consumption has been growing at an average annual rate of 6.6% and is expected to rise at a rate of 8% in 2016.
In terms of oil products and derivatives, Algeria consumed 422,000 bpd in 2015, up 5.8% from 2014 levels of 400,000 bpd. Oil consumption in Algeria has seen a rapid growth rate of nearly 70% between 2005 and 2015, from 249,000 bpd in 2005 to 422,000 bpd in 2015. This can largely be attributed to the substantial rise in the number of vehicles on the road, from 2.9m in the early 2000s to 5.5m in 2013.
Algerian households are seen as consuming almost 10 times more electricity than the international average, and close to double what other North African countries are consuming according to the National Agency for the Promotion and Rationalisation of the Use of Energy (Agence Nationale pour la Promotion et la Rationalisation de l’Utilisation de l’ Energie, APRUE), one of the sector’s regulatory agencies. Though maximum demand increased only lightly compared to 2014, it has clearly evolved since 2012. “Between 2012 and 2015, maximum demand has increased by about 27%,” Hamid Bennour, portfolio consulting manager at Siemens told OBG. “This is largely due to the widespread use of air-conditioning units, which are no longer considered a luxury item.”
According to the APRUE, the average households consumes around 1.8 to 2 MWh per year, well above the international average of 200 to 250 KWh annually, a result not only of large household sizes but also higher purchasing power. An increase in industrial activity has also led to a rise in demand from larger consumers.
Natural gas continues to be the primary resource used for power generation in Algeria, though with the advent of recent projects aimed at raising the share of renewable energy in the generation mix by 2030, renewable energies are expected to play a stronger role in the longer term. Algeria’s current total power generation capacity stood at around 15 GW in 2015, unchanged from 2014 but up 2 GW compared to 2012. According to Bennour, the equivalent of 13.8 GW are currently under construction, of which 10.8 GW will be combined cycle and 3 GW will be in open cycles and gas turbines. “The combined-cycle aspect of this programme is expected to be delivered by 2017, while the rest should be delivered by 2019,” Bennour told OBG. Sonelgaz has been planning to invest more than €6.8bn in thermal capacity by 2017 and contracted a 1250-MW combined-cycle plant at a cost of €641.3m. Additionally, roughly 600 MW per year are expected to come on-line between 2019 and 2025 thanks to different partnerships signed in 2013 between power distributor Sonelgaz and GE, following a large call for proposals. The agreements provide for the construction of between four and six new turbines per year, according to Hamid Bennour at Siemens.
Algeria launched an ambitious national programme to develop renewable energy in 2011, with the objective of launching 22 GW of renewable energy by 2030. “Renewables would represent about 35% of the installed capacity by that time if we take into consideration the capacity increase in 2019,” Bennour, told OBG. In February 2016 the minister of energy was already announcing the government’s intention to commission an estimated 4500 MW of renewable energy projects by 2020 in line with the ultimate goal of generating 22 GW.
To boost investments in the renewable energy sector, the government announced an electricity sale guarantee in May 2016. The guarantee forms part of the new legal framework in the renewable sector adopted by the Council of Ministers in May 2015. Thanks to this, companies producing energy from renewable sources would benefit from a 20-year sales guarantee, seen as one way to incentivise companies to invest in this sector.
A number of foreign companies have begun expressing interest in investing in Algeria’s push for renewable energy. In addition to its Sonelgaz contract, in June 2016, GE signed an agreement with the Renewable Energies Development Centre (Centre de Dé veloppement des Énergies Renouvellables, CDER) to begin cooperating on renewable projects in Algeria through technology transfer as well as sustainable grid management techniques. Italian multinational energy company Eni also expressed interest in further developing its portfolio in Algeria by collaborating on matters related to renewable energy development.
With a high insolation rate of 1700 KWh per sq metre in the north, 1900 KWh per sq metre in the central plateau and 2650 KWh per sq metre in the south, Algeria has sought to expand solar generation, not only for domestic consumption but also with an eye to export (see analysis). The country already has a sizeable volume of solar output: data from the CDER shows that the country was able to add 268 MW of solar energy in 2015, largely thanks to investments by Sonelgaz’s electricity and renewable energy subsidiary Shariket Kahraba wa Taket Moutadjadida (SKTM), which is also working towards adding an additional 400 MW of solar power by the end of 2016.
The Hassi R’Mel hybrid power plant has been operating since 2011 as Algeria’s largest combined solar thermal power plant, with output of 25 MW of solar power and 130 MW of combined-turbine gas production. The southern wilaya of Adrar has also commissioned six solar plants totalling 48 MW of combined capacity due to come on-line by the end of 2016. The first phase of SKTM’s 400-MW plan involves the construction of 13 solar plants in the country’s highlands and seven photovoltaic plants in In Salah and Adrar in the south-western region. Private investment has also made headway in the solar power sector, with Condor Electronics Algeria in the process of developing a 2-MW solar project with Renewable Energy Partner, a UK solar firm. PowerChina also brought a 233-MW solar power plant on-line in the wilaya of Adrar in January 2016. The Ministry of Energy is also hoping that solar power development will lead to the manufacturing of domestically produced equipment, which would not only increase employment and industrial activity, but according to ministry calculations, would also reduce the cost per KW, which currently stands at AD11 (€0.09).
Wind power is another renewable sector the country is looking to develop, as it has the potential to bring 35 TWh per year on-line. According to the government’s 2030 renewable energy targets, wind power should add 5 GW to the power mix by 2030, with a first 2015-20 phase bringing 1 GW and a second phase (2021-30) accounting for the remaining 4 GW.
TARIFFS: In February 2016 the Regulatory Commission for Electricity and Gas (Commission de Régulation de l’Electricité et du Gaz, CREG), announced its new 2016 prices for electricity and gas. Electricity bills in Algeria are divided into four categories, of which two are considered low-electricity users and two are considered high-electricity users. The first category includes consumption rates of 0-125 KWh per trimester, while the second covers 125-250 KWh. Category three comprises consumption between 250 and 1000 KWh per trimester, while category four applies on consumption of more than 1000 KWh. Tariff increases will not particularly affect consumers in the lowest two categories. On the other hand, consumers in the third category will see their electricity bill rise by 15.15%, and those in the top category will experience a hike of 31.13%. The CREG believes that the former increase will affect around 54% of electricity consumers, while the latter will affect an estimated 22% of electricity consumers. This rise in prices is largely presented as an attempt to incentivise heavy users to reduce their consumption without affecting low-income households. This move should also help Sonelgaz’s finances.
In an effort to cub demand and improve electricity consumption, authorities have announced a series of measures in 2016 to improve energy efficiency. The APRUE is working on implementing a classification system for electrical equipment similar to that in place in Europe. Equipment would be ranked from category A to G, from the most energy efficient to the least, and the APRUE has advised the Ministry of Trade to develop testing laboratories to monitor energy consumption levels in imported electrical products.
As the government attempts to curb the impact of the global downturn in oil prices and sustain economic growth, boosting hydrocarbons production to make up for lower prices and keep pace with rising domestic demand is a priority. Making the market attractive to foreign investors is fundamental to raising production, as are measures to ensure sustainable consumption of energy.
While the Algerian government has demonstrated its commitment to reforming the heavy regulatory framework, much remains to be done to incentivise investors and attract them to both oil and gas, as well as renewables. Such efforts include further liberalisation of the renewables sector, developing clearer regulations for independent power productions and reducing red tape to prevent costly project delays.
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